First, thanks to Dr. Phil for his brutally honest comments on my playing bad & getting lucky. I believe he was totally correct for the most part. (By the way, the hand took place in the Jokers deep stack tournament so most of us had over 10,000 chips at the start of the hand.) I hate to admit this, however, but most of the time I go by feel instead of math and perhaps that's stupid, but it usually works OK for me. Call it woman's intuition.
Having said that, I just want to toot my own horn by saying that my "feelings" allowed me to call a couple of hands during the Jokers Tournament of Champions that I probably should not have called. In the first hand I was holding A-8 (with everyone limping early in the tournament) & a flop of A-5-5. I checked and called one player all the way down who kept betting and I just didn't put him on a 5 or even an ace. I honestly can't say why I felt that way - I just did. He folded without showing his cards after I called the river.
In the second hand I had 6-6 in the big blind. I had about 6,000 chips at that point. There was one raise to 600 and another guy went all-in for 1,600. I called actually believing I had the best hand, which I believed even more when the original raiser folded. The all-in had 8-7 offsuit so he had 2 over-cards. I flopped quads. Good gravy. That was the SIXTH time I had quads since Friday, but that's another story. Needless to say, I knocked him out.
I ended up winning the tournament for a good payout (14 x buy-in). Fun, fun, fun. I guess I really would rather be lucky than good.
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Great job at the TOC! A great win. I did the math on your losing call with the A/8 clubs vs KK and my poker calculator says your win % was 45.5% vs. 40.6% for the kings, so, like my Wildhorse all in you were technically ahead and he was making an incorrect play (though we would all do the same thing). You might want to check out that Annie Duke book, it sometimes is the feeling you get based on your reads, tells, prior experience with player, their stack size, etc, etc. You should never discount that. however, I think the math part is very important, particularly when you give odds. Such as betting enough that flush or straight draws are getting the "wrong price" to call. You always gain when an opponent makes a mistake according to the fundamental rule of poker. It is a game of small edges and incomplete information.
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